It's June and we're pretty well into the swing of things in the world of the St. Louis Cardinals and et cetera. The Cards find themselves 11 games over .500, 2.5 games behind the Northsiders, and with a nice lead in the wild card race over a handful of competitive teams. This is a nice start that outperformed a lot of expectations from the gurus of preseason projections. We've gotten some surprisingly good pitching from our starting five—only Looper and the Parisi experiment have an ERA+ below 90—and Ludwick has been playing ridiculously out of his brain, but we needn't embrace irrational exuberance about the performance, like, almost all of our local sportswriters.
And that is why I have a problem with STL P-D columnist Jeff Gordon. Excuse me while I get my FJM on:
Future looks even brighter for Cards
By Jeff Gordon
STLTODAY.COM SPORTS COLUMNIST
06/09/2008
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa never wants to talk about 2009. Neither does general manager John Mozeliak.
Really now? Seems to me that whenever Mo talks about the future of Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, K-Mac or the extension of Wainer that Mo wants to talk about 2009. Gordo is just trying to be cute, but this is bad journalism.
Both men are convinced the ’08 team could contend. So far, the Cards are doing just that, despite suffering myriad injuries.
The Cards have actually been pretty healthy this year. Before Pineiro went down earlier this month, and the recent and serious injuries to Wellemeyer and Wainwright, the starters have been as reliable as the sunrise. The only injuries we’ve had in position players have been Ankiel here and there, Brendan Ryan’s ribcage or something to start the season (Remember Uncle Rico?), and Pujols' calf. Speaking of which, wasn't Glaus supposed to be seriously injury prone?
They are 11 games over .500 and they have staying power.
I agree with this statement...mostly. They've played some weaker teams and they're Pythagorean record is 35-30, but that might be due to Tony leaving starters out there to "save the bullpen." We'll see how they'll due if/when Ludwick comes down to earth and with Boggs filling in for the Colonel. Oh yea, and that Wainwright guy's injury, which might last six weeks.
But projections for the ’09 season ARE intriguing. The Cards will have more payroll flexibility next year, due to several expiring contracts. With several key prospects developing at once, Mozeliak will move into an enviable position.
The Cards’ success with rookies this season makes the forecast for next season even better. Circumstances are forcing the team to test a lot of kids.
Unless players like Glaus, Ludwick, and the ghost of Adam Kennedy show 30+ age-related decline. Kennedy is kaput, anyway, but we'll see how these kids score. My guess is that they're subjecting them to the ACT. This is
Many have arrived ahead of schedule and most are holding up just fine. They are showcasing their potential to the Cards and the rest of the major leagues.
Infielder Brendan Ryan, Sunday’s hero, is a potential starter at second base or shortstop. Righthanded power hitter Joe Mather looks capable of balancing a left-centric outfield. Rule 5 addition Brian Barton has shown he can excel as a No. 4 or No. 5 outfielder.
I'm not sure about this Barton statement. Like, how does one SHOW that he CAN excel? I agree that Crab Man has shown a lot of potential (his minor league numbers corroborate that, too), but his OPS+ at the time of this writing is only 81 with 7xbh in 102 PAs. That's pretty much replacement level corner outfielder with a 26% k-rate. I do like the acquisition and Barton's potential, but this sentence doesn't have a large amount of empirical evidence, or logical constraints, to back it up.
Kyle McClellan, Chris Perez and Mark Worrell have bolstered the bullpen. It’s too early to assess pitcher Mitchell Boggs, but he ascended quickly through the Cards organization after arriving from the college ranks.
The Next One, outfielder Colby Rasmus, is finally hitting in
The Next One: sounds like a Grateful Dead moniker for the next Jerry Garcia.
When we chatted Friday with
David Freese has an OPS of .801 in AAA and his BABIP is .351, historically in line with his career averages in the minors. I don't know how to do Major League Equivalence conversions, but I'd like to think that he would be hitting better than Miles, Kennedy, Ryan and Izturis (from the left side) at this point. Bring him up.
Maloney also raved about the professionalism of veterans Anthony Reyes and Chris Duncan. Reyes appears to be auditioning for other clubs looking for pitching help. Duncan, who is trying to relocate his power stroke, suffered a setback when he crashed into an outfield wall.
But both players remain assets. As a result, Mozeliak has options.
So now the look forward is encouraging:
* Juan Encarnacion’s $6.5 million salary will be off the books after this season. Kyle Lohse ($4.25 million), Braden Looper ($5.5 million) and Jason Isringhausen ($8 million) will become free agents. Mark Mulder ($6.5 million) could also exit the payroll, unless the Cards exercise their $11 million option.
This should read: "Mark Mulder ($6.5 Million) will also exit the payroll." Also, I kinda wish Jocketty never signed Juan in the first place.
Our take: Mozeliak ought to use that flexibility to give Lohse a long-term extension. His performance in this pitching-friendly environment has been a revelation. He has become the second coming of Woody Williams.
Really? I mean, Kyle Lohse…long-term? Career WHIP of 1.421? Meh, we'll see how well he does for the rest of the year--maybe--but there might be better options.
If Izzy rallies this summer, I’d give him one more year at reasonable money – but no guarantee that he would close ahead of the hard-throwing Perez.
Not a chance he's resigned. Good thing Gordo isn't running the team.
* Young veterans Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker have collectively exceeded expectations in the outfield. Ankiel only hits in streaks, but his defensive play has been consistently brilliant. Ludwick and Schumaker are making huge professional strides.
According to RZR and Rick's arm, Ankiel is arguably the best CF in the game, making ridiculous plays (and this impression is not just because of the Jeter-dazzle-fallacy of defensive acumen). And are his plays brilliant like sparkly or brilliant like intelligent.
* The Cards can reasonably expect to have Chris Carpenter back in his No. 1 starter role next season. He, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro are under contract. Mozeliak can pick up his contract option on Matt Clement, IF he finally comes off the disabled list and pitches like his old self.
That is an enormous if. Hence the need to explore an extension for Lohse. And if Todd Wellemeyer holds up this summer, he will merit long-term investment as well. Power arms are hard to find.
What’s up with this fragmentation? Let me retype this: “That is an enormous ‘if’—hence the need to explore an extension for Lohse—and if Wellemeyer holds up this summer…
I think Lohse's performance for the rest of the year and next one is a pretty big IF as well. If there's one thing he's been, it has been reliably worse than his performance thus far. He eats innings though.
* As Derrick Goold reports, the Cards consider Kyle McClellan a prime candidate for the ’09 rotation. He could take the same step Wainwright took. Boggs was a reliever in college, so he could move to bullpen next season in a Brad Thompson-like role.
Kyle McClellan has made 4 starts since 2006, three of which were in rookie ball in which he averaged 2.1 innings a start. He's a great reliever in the bigs, but this statement makes me wonder if Derrick Goold and Gordon EVER look at these guys’ minor league numbers. Jeez. I am, however, looking forward to Boggs' start tonight. His FIP at
* Mozeliak will have to deal some of his pitching and outfield surplus at some point. Reyes and Duncan, currently unable to hold jobs in St. Louis, are logical targets. So is Thompson, another of the hurlers currently on the rehab trail.
Thompson is pretty mediocre; maybe some pitching starved team wants a sinkerballer swing man.
If all the Cards pitchers ever become healthy at the same time -– a long shot, we know -- Mozeliak will have to move a hurler or two in his current rotation just to make the roster work. That will make him popular among his peers.
I can just see it now..."Oh Biggie Moz, let me court your starting darlings." I've actually advocated moving Looper, because he's a known quantity and he's expensive, but at this rate, there exists no surplus of starting pitching.
Rather than having to deal young players to fill short-term needs this summer, Mozeliak could take the opposite approach. He could move a few veteran hurlers for longer-term assets.
* By signing Cesar Izturis to a one-year deal, Mozeliak left his options open at shortstop. Better offensive players like Rafael Furcal and
Mozeliak could opt to keep Izturis for his glove -– or he could hand the job to Ryan, who will get additional starts at that position this summer. One thing that won’t happen: Mozeliak dramatically overspending for a free-agent shortstop out of necessity.
The pieces are lining up nicely. This season is stressful for Mozeliak, La Russa and the rest of the baseball operation.
I...don't...understand...the...coherence of this paragraph.
But this season is also illuminating, since so many youngsters are accelerating their growth in the middle of a playoff race. The better this group does the summer, the more excited Cardinal Nation can become about 2009.
All in all, a Gordo column lacking serious empirical support and making some dead-end claims—bad sports journalism.
